Watching gold prices lately? It’s been quite the show. The classic safe haven keeps bumping up against record levels, getting serious folks like Ed Yardeni and billionaire investor John Paulson talking about a potential climb to $5,000 an ounce, maybe even higher. Naturally, that gets crypto folks thinking: If old-school gold makes a run like that, what does it mean for Bitcoin—the asset many call “digital gold”?
Thinking about how these two relate isn’t just for kicks. Looking at how Bitcoin has sometimes followed gold’s lead—often with way bigger percentage gains—gives us some interesting food for thought, especially with everything going on right now, like trade fights and changes in the global money flow.
How Bitcoin and Gold Have Looked in 2025
Bitcoin’s had a bit of a bumpy ride this year. Remember the crypto market dip caused by the trade war fears, plus that rough patch between late February and late April? That definitely knocked BTC around. But, checking the price data on Binance as of May 8, Bitcoin is actually up about 6.8% since the start of the year.
It’s important to remember, though, that most of that gain came from a pretty sharp 30% jump between April 9 and May 8. Before that recent rally, it was looking pretty grim year-to-date.
Gold, though? It’s been telling a different story—one of steady, impressive gains. From January 1 to May 8, an ounce of gold climbed a solid 27.7%, going from $2,624.63 up to $3,353.05, based on Markets Insider data. It did dip a little after hitting a peak near $3,500 in late April, but overall, gold’s trend has been consistently strong, pulling in investors looking for safety in uncertain times.
Seeing gold climb steadily while Bitcoin had to fight its way back really shows how they can behave differently in today’s market. Still, analysts over at Glassnode pointed out in mid-April that both assets were holding up surprisingly well given the global turmoil, calling them potential “global neutral reserve assets.” With big names now throwing around targets like $5,000 or even $6,000 for gold, people are definitely curious about the ripple effect on Bitcoin.
So If Gold Hits $5K, What About Bitcoin?
This is where things get really interesting. If gold were to make that climb to $5,000, how might that affect Bitcoin, given their intertwined history? We can’t know for sure, obviously, but looking back gives us some interesting patterns. BTC has often outpaced gold—sometimes by a lot—when they rallied together, especially when there was substantial capital sloshing around globally or the dollar looked weak.
Think back to the period from November 2022 to November 2023. Global money supply (M2) was on the rise. Gold gained a respectable 25%. Bitcoin? It shot up about 150%. That’s BTC doing 6 times better than gold in percentage terms during that run.
Now, if gold goes from where it is now (around $3,350) up to $5,000, that’s about a 50% increase. If that 6x relationship held true again, a 50% gold jump might translate to a 300% jump for Bitcoin (50% x 6). A 300% rise from current levels could put BTC somewhere around the $285,000 mark. Interestingly, that $285,000 figure isn’t totally out of left field—it lines up reasonably well with what some analysts, like apsk32, have projected using models that compare Bitcoin to gold’s total market value, suggesting a target in the $270,000-$300,000 range.
Frank Holmes has a similar take. He thinks gold could hit $6,000 during Trump’s presidency, partly because he believes Trump’s tariff plans might weaken the dollar, making gold more attractive alongside already strong buying from central banks. If that happens, Holmes sees Bitcoin pushing past its old highs, potentially hitting $120,000-$150,000 in the near term, and maybe even $250,000 down the road if more people adopt it.
Then there are analysts like Cryptollica, who focus on how Bitcoin sometimes lags behind gold’s big moves. They see gold hitting new records recently while Bitcoin was still consolidating, suggesting BTC might just be getting ready for its own catch-up rally. If Bitcoin starts following gold’s recent powerful uptrend, Cryptollica’s charts suggest a possible target around $155,000.
And one more point: Glassnode noted that Bitcoin’s recent dip from its all-time high (around 30%) was actually pretty mild compared to past bear markets, where it dropped 50% or more. That relative strength suggests investors might be viewing it differently now, maybe more like digital gold.
So, while $5,000 gold doesn’t automatically mean a specific price for Bitcoin, the historical link and the shared potential benefits from things like a weaker dollar or more global cash flow suggest it would likely be very good news for BTC, possibly pushing it deep into six-figure territory.
